Corona Virus - Anyone Else Monitoring It?

[Chandu]

People are going back to work in China today.

If my theory holds then we should see an uptick in a week assuming they stay working. Streets, trains, busses, buildings are all going have more people than they did previously giving a greater chance for the virus to propagate.

I didn't mean only China that would use heavier handed tactics without giving a care what the public sentiment was. Russia, many Midde East countries would do the same. I'm actually arguing these heavier handed tactics are probably beneficial in this case. Sort of you have to break some eggs to make an omlet.

 

[GaryTha]

If my theory holds then we should see an uptick in a week assuming they stay working. Streets, trains, busses, buildings are all going have more people than they did previously giving a greater chance for the virus to propagate.

I didn't mean only China that would use heavier handed tactics without giving a care what the public sentiment was. Russia, many Midde East countries would do the same. I'm actually arguing these heavier handed tactics are probably beneficial in this case. Sort of you have to break some eggs to make an omlet.

Premortem

I think your opinion is correct on the surface, but let's assume it fails. The reason for this approach is contained in this article. Doing a "premortem" before implementing a plan can reveal factors that otherwise aren't addressed.

Most epidemics have a "superspreader." It can be a person, place or thing.

Typhoid Mary, an Irish Cook in the United States, was an asymptomatic carrier of typhoid. She was thought to have infected 51 people. A Cholera epidemic in St. James Parish was arrested when John Snow removed the water pump handle. A gonorrhea epidemic that infected 768 people in Colorado Springs was associated with "the activities of 168 people living in four small neighborhoods and basically frequenting the same six bars."
Gladwell, Malcolm. The Tipping Point (p. 20). Little, Brown and Company. Kindle.

One hundred thirty-four of the one hundred sixty-five cases in a Chinese hospital were healthcare workers.

 

[Chandu]

One hundred thirty-four of the one hundred sixty-five cases in a Chinese hospital were healthcare workers.

Never underestimate that as a factor either. Not inconceivable that healthcare workers fail to report to work out of fear. This too is probably less likely to happen in countries that break eggs to make omlets, but still could be a factor.

 

[Chandu]

One other thought, any reports of them drawing the blood of survivors and trying to spin up a vaccine?

 

[Raissermesser]

Would you believe some countries are censoring articles by anti-vaxxers, lying about what they actually write, and threatening them with imprisonment? Those darn Americans. Who the hell do they think they are?

I'm not starting an anti-vaxxer debate. What I am suggesting is we be skeptical about what we are told about human rights in other countries. I prefer to say the Chinese are more obedient when it comes to taking precautionary measures.

When I look at Google Maps satellite view and the various photos around China, I see they aren't more dense than the United States.

People are going back to work in China today.

Someone who has traveled to China will probably explain why I'm wrong. That's a good thing.

The Christians there will likely disagree with you. And China has a population density of 145 per square kilometer, compared to the US' 33.6 per square kilometer.

 

[Alacrity59]

The early warning "experts" are suggesting the coronavirus is airborne. That means it doesn't settle to surfaces like the flu and cold viruses. We will see if they are right.

Interesting. I've not yet heard the either/or on this. I understand the protocol for people in quarantine in Canada involves the wiping down of surfaces. 7 cases confirmed or probable in Canada now. I think we are on top of it but early days.

 

[Chef455]

If they start waking back up and eating brains I will definitely be paying more attention to the Shooting Sports and Firearms threads. Just saying.

 

[Alacrity59]

One other thought, any reports of them drawing the blood of survivors and trying to spin up a vaccine?

My understanding is that they have grown the virus in the lab and can start working on a vaccine. It seems that testing a vaccine takes some time. . . in Canada we are told something like a year or so out.

 

[Esox]

My understanding is that they have grown the virus in the lab and can start working on a vaccine. It seems that testing a vaccine takes some time. . . in Canada we are told something like a year or so out.

China released the genetic sequencing for the virus a while ago. They could have done it sooner but the Chinese government withheld all their information for almost a month before releasing it to the world.

The below from Jan.11.

China releases genetic data on new coronavirus, now deadly - http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/china-releases-genetic-data-new-coronavirus-now-deadly

 

[xiletero]

China released the genetic sequencing for the virus a while ago. They could have done it sooner but the Chinese government withheld all their information for almost a month before releasing it to the world.

The below from Jan.11.

China releases genetic data on new coronavirus, now deadly - http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/china-releases-genetic-data-new-coronavirus-now-deadly

And then it will mutate....

 

[Legacoid]

It's starting to look like that "uptick" that Chandu mention has indeed occurred:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1227741314911031296

Just as the WHO was going with "relax guys, it's stabilizing".

Here in the UK the report about the prison infection seems to be a false alarm, and the case in London may have been fresh off a plane, but it looks like the virus has established a foothold way down south in Brighton.

EDIT: The new numbers appear to reflect a change in the way the figures are compiled, but still..

 

[Chandu]

EDIT: The new numbers appear to reflect a change in the way the figures are compiled, but still..

A change in the way the figures are compiled could really mean. We're getting closer to telling you the truth.

People will do different things to mask fear. I think most of the attempts at humor on the twitterfeed are not for masking fear it's probably more of a sense of "that could never happen where I live" I'd say don't be so sure.