Electric Cars - help me understand

[Alacrity59]

Let's say there is a 1 Gigawatt power plant that somehow manages to be online 24/7
Do I multiply by 365 days and by 24 hours to get 8,760 Gigawatt hours?
If so do I then multiply by 1,000 and then 1,000 again to get 8,760,000,000 Kilowatt hours? (I'm Canadian hence KM)

A Tesla model 3 consumes 14.9 Kilowatt hours per 100 KM. An average driver drives 17,000 KM per year so in a year
we need 17,000 KM x 14.9 Kwh / 100km = 2,533 Kwh per year

So if I have that 1 Gigawatt plant I can support 8,760,000,000 / 2,533 = 3,458,350 Tesla model 3s

There are 276,000,000 licensed cars in the US in 2019.

If we are going fully electric in the US we need 276,000,000 / 3,458,350 = 80 1 gigawatt power plants

Does this make sense?

 

[jackgoldman123]

We're gonna need a bigger boat, so to speak

 

[Alacrity59]

I'm not sure on the math as I don't usually think about power plants. But if I'm right that is a lot of building. Then that is only autos. There also has to be some redundancy as power plants don't run 24/7 etc. etc. etc.

 

[njpaddy]

Let's say there is a 1 Gigawatt power plant that somehow manages to be online 24/7
Do I multiply by 365 days and by 24 hours to get 8,760 Gigawatt hours?
If so do I then multiply by 1,000 and then 1,000 again to get 8,760,000,000 Kilowatt hours? (I'm Canadian hence KM)

A Tesla model 3 consumes 14.9 Kilowatt hours per 100 KM. An average driver drives 17,000 KM per year so in a year
we need 17,000 KM x 14.9 Kwh / 100km = 2,533 Kwh per year

So if I have that 1 Gigawatt plant I can support 8,760,000,000 / 2,533 = 3,458,350 Tesla model 3s

There are 276,000,000 licensed cars in the US in 2019.

If we are going fully electric in the US we need 276,000,000 / 3,458,350 = 80 1 gigawatt power plants

Does this make sense?

That post made me poor, old brain hurt. My question is what happens with the all the old electric batteries in 15-20 years?

 

[Avi]

The other way to think about it is is a gallon of gas has about 36 kWh of energy in it, so while your numbers seems like a high amount of energy, it is far less than the amount you are vaporizing to go the same distance.

When I couple this with the potential of wiping out transmission costs with local generation ( e.g. solar on my building ) the pay back cost of going electric and solar from a purely fiscal consideration is pretty apparent, particularly given there is no equivalent for gas and so even works as a hedge against oil price fluctuations.

I do not think the future is that many purely central power plants because of the difficulty of transmission, enough solar to power a car for free compared to the cost of gas - is a fiscal incentive enough.

Avi

 

[jackgoldman123]

Let's help educate this current generation (no pun intended) so they can invent/discover new/more efficient sources of energy

 

[Forged]

That post made me poor, old brain hurt. My question is what happens with the all the old electric batteries in 15-20 years?

Indeed, not to mention all the (environmentally) destructive mining involved to produce the lithium and other elements required to make all those batteries in the first place.

 

[Hercule]

Indeed, not to mention all the (environmentally) destructive mining involved to produce the lithium and other elements required to make all those batteries in the first place.

Don't forget the coal mined to run the power plants.

 

[rbscebu]

What many fail to consider is the transmission loss with electricity. A 1GW power plant maybe only able to deliver 0.6GW to 0.8GW of electricity to the end consumer

 

[GeronimoWSB]

I think Elon Musk has even said all electric can't be supported.

 

[garyg]

It will be an interesting , er, "trip" for sure. At present I don't often but regularly drive about 160 miles to see old friends, then back. One tank of gas, I fill up at either end depending on who has the cheapest gas that day .. fill up takes 5 minutes

So 320 miles that as I understand is outside the range of an electric car. Last trip I saw some signs on the turnpike about chargers being available .. but how long to charge up?

Better actual mass transit can make a dent, but I don't see much being done in that regard. Sure, I can get on a plane that turns my 160 mile car trip into 3 hours of tedium (car to airport, TSA, 45 minute flight, rental car), for about 10x the price of gas & tolls..

Its the medium distance trips that haven't been addressed by the wonks

 

[pdieten]

Asking questions like this is like living in 1910 and asking "What are they going to do, put gasoline stations all over the place? How are you going to get the gasoline to them? What happens if you're out of gas and there's no station nearby?"

When the infrastructure is needed, the infrastructure will come, in whatever form makes the most sense at the time, whether or not we can imagine it today.

 

[thefenlander]

Asking questions like this is like living in 1910 and asking "What are they going to do, put gasoline stations all over the place? How are you going to get the gasoline to them? What happens if you're out of gas and there's no station nearby?"

When the infrastructure is needed, the infrastructure will come, in whatever form makes the most sense at the time, whether or not we can imagine it today.

When Bertha Benz went for her famous drive in 1888 she had to stop at pharmacies to buy fuel because they were the only places that sold it!

 

[TexOkie Shaver]

Does this make sense?

Yes, your numbers are correct as far as they go. As another reader noted, there will be electric power lost through the transmission lines, switches and connections. Sure, copper wire has negligible resistance when you’re talking about a few yards, but when you are talking about miles of wire, resistance becomes a factor and power will be lost through heat that is generated to push the electrons down that much copper.

An interesting additional component is that the power is not transmitted from the plant at 220VAC, or even 480VAC. Instead they transmit the power at 345,000 VAC when transmitted over long distances. The power is stepped down to 69,000 VAC when it gets closer to the point of consumption and again down to 13,800 VAC when it gets even closer. When they are ready to send it to homes and businesses, they step it down again to 480VAC & 220VAC. The actual voltages used vary from system to system, but they are in the neighborhood of the voltages I’ve posted.

Every time there is a step down in voltage, that is accomplished through a transformer. The transformers have not only resistance in the wire, but resistance in the form of inductive impedance.

Every step of the way, there are losses because of the impedance and resistance. These losses are realized in the form of heat that has to be dissipated at the transformers and switches. That’s why you see those big fins on them and why some even have fans.

The bottom line is a 1 GW plant would be doing very well if it was able to get 80% of that power to the end users. We are going to need more generation capacity to support electric cars. A lot more.

Solar and wind in their current form just can’t make up that difference. It’s going to take plants with big generators powered by hydro, natural gas, nuclear, and coal. Or, someone is going to have to come up with a new way to generate power.

It’s a very complicated equation and just saying we will pull all the gasoline engines out of use in ten years and replace them with electric is just saying what people want to hear. I just don’t see it happening.

 

[TexOkie Shaver]

My question is what happens with the all the old electric batteries in 15-20 years?

Unless there has been an advance in Lithium batteries that I missed, it’s more like 5 years. The life of Lithium Ion batteries is about 5 years. If you are referring to once we’ve replaced all the gas engines plus the 5 years, then 15 is about right. Lithium batteries will be the new spent uranium.

Not to mention, what happens when the limited Lithium deposits run out? Also, isn’t China in control of most Lithium deposits?

EDIT: I found an article at the link below that says Tesla guarantees their batteries for 8 years or 50,000 miles. The article also claims a possible limit somewhere above 500,000 miles. I didn’t see any details on years other than the 8 year guarantee.

How long does a Tesla battery last?

Are you a first-time owner of a Tesla EV vehicle and wondering how long does a Tesla battery last? Continue reading to find out

evcharging.enelx.com

 

[TexOkie Shaver]

It will be an interesting , er, "trip" for sure. At present I don't often but regularly drive about 160 miles to see old friends, then back. One tank of gas, I fill up at either end depending on who has the cheapest gas that day .. fill up takes 5 minutes

So 320 miles that as I understand is outside the range of an electric car. Last trip I saw some signs on the turnpike about chargers being available .. but how long to charge up?

Better actual mass transit can make a dent, but I don't see much being done in that regard. Sure, I can get on a plane that turns my 160 mile car trip into 3 hours of tedium (car to airport, TSA, 45 minute flight, rental car), for about 10x the price of gas & tolls..

Its the medium distance trips that haven't been addressed by the wonks

The Latest Tesla Models: Max Mile Range
2020 Tesla Model Y
How far it can go: up to 316-mile range (EPA est.)

2020 Tesla Model 3
How far it can go: up to 322-mile range (EPA est.)

2020 Tesla Model X
How far it can go: up to 351-mile range (EPA est.)

2020 Tesla Model S
How far it can go: up to 402-mile range (EPA est.)

Source:Amato's Auto Body - Voted Best Auto Body Repair in San Diego - https://amatosautobody.com/max-range-mileage-latest-tesla-models/

I don’t know if the numbers are fact, but they sound right from what I’ve heard from other sources. Your 1200 mile vacation trip will take about 4 days of travel instead of two.

 

[Alacrity59]

Asking questions like this is like living in 1910 and asking "What are they going to do, put gasoline stations all over the place? How are you going to get the gasoline to them? What happens if you're out of gas and there's no station nearby?"

When the infrastructure is needed, the infrastructure will come, in whatever form makes the most sense at the time, whether or not we can imagine it today.

What did I say that made you think I was against the idea? If we want to move in this direction would it not be a good idea to put numbers and plans together?

 

[ColtRevolver]

I doubt if I will live long enough to see an electric pickup truck to do what I want. One of my current gasoline pickups can pull up to twice it's own weight and go 450+ miles on a tank doing it.

 

[pdieten]

What did I say that made you think I was against the idea? If we want to move in this direction would it not be a good idea to put numbers and plans together?

I don't think I meant to imply you were against it. But I did mean to imply that there's no point in anyone who's not in the various industries involved losing sleep over it. Either the many people involved in such things will get the infrastructure stood up to meet the demand, or the demand will be restricted by the inability to build the infrastructure. There are so many people working on that right now, and I don't think any of them knows today where precisely where that balance will be found. To an extent we're feeling our way along as the technology develops.

 

[jackgoldman123]

My dad grew up with horses in the streets - no cars. I can only imagine how some thought about how this new fangled car was going to replace a horse. He saw house electric current, cars, radio, tv, computers, jet planes, space flight and atomic bombs developed plus a ton of medical advances including eradication of polio and smallpox.

Someone, somewhere hopefully within a few years will solve the problem with energy efficiency. It may not be an elegant or recognizable solution. I hope those with the physics/math knowledge are moving in this direction.