Whats up with 2010?

[Shogun89]

By now I'm sure most of us have seen the price for a 2010 Dayi 7542 cake, which is about double of last years price.
http://cgi.ebay.com/7542-Menghai-Da...tem&pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item35a8819f9e
Every year I like to stock up on these famous recipe cakes so I have a good supply once im older. Seeing these prices makes me want to take my 2010 money and put it into 2008 and 2009 production. What do you guys predict will happen to the market as the year goes on. Would it be wiser to buy the older productions instead of waiting for 2010? what do you guys think?

 

[arghblech]

By now I'm sure most of us have seen the price for a 2010 Dayi 7542 cake, which is about double of last years price.
http://cgi.ebay.com/7542-Menghai-Da...tem&pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item35a8819f9e
Every year I like to stock up on these famous recipe cakes so I have a good supply once im older. Seeing these prices makes me want to take my 2010 money and put it into 2008 and 2009 production. What do you guys predict will happen to the market as the year goes on. Would it be wiser to buy the older productions instead of waiting for 2010? what do you guys think?

I'm likely not buying any 2010 if the prices stay at twice the price.

 

[Maitre_Tea]

A few things:

• The first run of all the major recipe cakes probably consist mostly of maocha from previous years, which gives the recipe consistency from year to year, in case one year (like now) turns out with crappy tea. So for the larger factories (Dayi, Xiaguan, Haiwan, etc.) making your tea more expensive because of the 2010 bad harvest is just an excuse. Also, rains have started to fall so the tea is okay.
• Dragon Tea House has a higher mark-up on most of their items compared to Yunnan Sourcing. I think treating prices from Dragon Tea House as a benchmark would be a bit foolish. I'm curious to see how Scott prices this when he puts it up on his site, which I'm wondering why he hasn't.
• The Tao Bao price for this is more-or-less in line with its previous incarnations in past years, so Dragon Tea House is just marking it up more, maybe because they're one of the first western-oriented vendors to carry it.
• In terms of everything else, I've seen both ridiculously cheap and ridiculously expensive 2010 cakes, which is just business as usual. Personally, I think that the prices for smaller productions or private productions would probably be more expensive. So we'll just have to be more careful with our buying.
• Every few years there's a drought, and IIRC the last one that had an "impact" on the tea was 2006. In these kind of "off-years" why buy 2010 tea when you can buy 2008/2009 tea for much cheaper? Though if available I would buy a sample of the 7542 just to see how it stacks up to other years.
• Also, how much of that mark-up was spent on marketing and updating to that ridiculous logo? I wonder why they're going with the "wrong" pinyin

 

[tea goober]

I,m not about to buy any of it at the current price. Menghai is capitalizing on the draught and I,m not falling for it. They can keep em! As to why Scott's not offering any yet? Maybe his thought's are similar to ours and he's not going to be offering any and who could blame him? Why would he buy a bunch of cakes that are not going to sell?

 

[netsurfr]

I also find the prices on the 2010 teas to be outrageous. Hopefully, the prices will drop when Menghai finds that their teas are simply not moving at those prices.

 

[Hobbesoxon]

I also find the prices on the 2010 teas to be outrageous. Hopefully, the prices will drop when Menghai finds that their teas are simply not moving at those prices.

It's not Menghai. As Maitre Tea pointed out above, and I've pointed out in a similar thread, these cakes sell for around 10-15% more than the 2009 cakes on Taobao, not the 50-100% extra asked by some vendors.


Toodlepip,

Hobbes

 

[Shogun89]

Im thinking that Drgaon tea house notices how he's got a monopoly on the western market right now. that and the drought which dosnt even effect these cakes is the reason why he jacked the price up in order to milk whatever he can get. As others have said, im not purchasing anything at these prices, I will simply buy up some more '08 and '09 and wait for the '10 to drop and if it dosnt, so what.

 

[Maitre_Tea]

Word is from Scott that he's not going to be stocking the 2010 Menghai. Don't know why, since he's probably buying them at a price lower than any Tao Bao price out there.

 

[netsurfr]

I'm having some 2010 7542 shipped via surface so that I can keep the prices down for everyone.

 

[PIPS]

Im a noobie looking into this thread.
Can somebody enlighten me into whats going on and what "cake" is ?

 

[netsurfr]

What is going on: Basically, the Chinese merchants are driving the prices up on this tea and possible others based on the drought that happened in the Yunnan province during the last year. However, what is not commonly understood is that the tea (7542 in particular) is made from a blend of tea from the current year and previous years. Therefore, the heightened prices are rather artificial.

A cake is a compressed quantity of tea which happens to amount to approximately 357 grams in the case of the 7542 cakes. They appear much like a frisbee but are referred to as beengs or cakes.

 

[shah8]

I think there is quite a bit of that going on and it's making the puer market more and more disorderly.

On the top end, what the heck is up with Hailanghao? I just can't imagine paying $175 for just off the mold pu. Will gladly read reviews, tho!

 

[Maitre_Tea]

I think there is quite a bit of that going on and it's making the puer market more and more disorderly.

On the top end, what the heck is up with Hailanghao? I just can't imagine paying $175 for just off the mold pu. Will gladly read reviews, tho!

the odd thing is that half of it has already been bought up in the local market (not by Scott though).

 

[Maitre_Tea]

Take a look at the following 2010 teas that Scott just put on his website:

http://www.yunnansourcing.com/store/product.php?id_product=1280
http://www.yunnansourcing.com/store/product.php?id_product=1279
http://www.yunnansourcing.com/store/product.php?id_product=1278

all for under $11...which goes to show that we shouldn't be running around like headless chickens just because we see one expensive 2010 tea. To be fair though, maybe this just means Mengku wasn't hit as hard by the drought

 

[Shogun89]

all for under $11...which goes to show that we shouldn't be running around like headless chickens just because we see one expensive 2010 tea. To be fair though, maybe this just means Mengku wasn't hit as hard by the drought

I agree with what your saying. I find it strange though, that they are selling for this price. Say the drought didnt effect them but did many other companies. That would leave Mengku with a slight monopoly on the market, so I am confused as to why they wouldn't try to make the most of it and up the prices a bit to make maximum profit. All I can say is that I am very happy to see prices like that and those cakes look damn tasty

 

[P_K]

To me it seems like an attempt to take advantage of the drought in order to elevate the prices of the most popular Dayi recipes. You know like gas.....once it goes up everyone accepts it and pays the price.

Another interesting observation....Dragon Tea House shows the 2010 7542 as 5 stars all the sudden. All of the previous year 7542's are 4 stars. Hmmm. I wonder if price has something to do with it.

 

[Erik]

Another interesting observation....Dragon Tea House shows the 2010 7542 as 5 stars all the sudden. All of the previous year 7542's are 4 stars. Hmmm. I wonder if price has something to do with it.

If it cost more it has to be better.

 

[Sp1key]

A huge part of it is marketing strategy by the manufacturer/auth. dealer

 

[Shogun89]

Well here is a welcoming sight. wonder how it is...
http://cgi.ebay.com/2010-Menghai-Te...tem&pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item4aa1887a93