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Inflation hit home yesterday.

Phoenixkh

I shaved a fortune
Was head downtown on errands, stopped for quick something to calm hunger as I was near Pro Ranch Marketing PHX. They are what I call a cool experience in wrong part of town. Use to get a Carnitas Quesadilla for about $5.00 that was wonderful, yesterday the bill was $9.00. Still as good, but not as cheap as pre Covid.

Seems everything is going up up and, out of reach for many, sign of times.
This last round of post-Covid inflation has me back to work, delivering food and other goods. It’s the easiest job I’ve ever had, but I still prefer retirement . <eg>
 

Phoenixkh

I shaved a fortune
Food prices overall might not be up, but what we buy has doubled from 2020. I can track our grocery receipts.

I could be wrong, but I know Social Security increases are determined by the inflation numbers. I’ve never trusted the published reports furnished by our wonderful government. <ev>
 

Columbo

Mr. Codgers Neighborhood
But we also should not forget that the income also increased during the time. Not sure what one made in the mid 60's, maybe 5-6k or so, but my wife told me a Ford Mustang Convertible was about $2700 then. Probably being north of $35k these days.


You are really testing my memory.

But in the later 60s into the early 70s, making anything over $10,000 was living comfortably. Many made around that, or a little bit less as you said. And you didn't necessarily need a college degree to pull that down. And it was usually plenty to raise a family on, without a spouse needing to work. One or two cars in the driveway. Maybe an above-ground pool in the backyard in the summers.

And if you made $20,000 or more then, you were doing very well. Doctors and lawyers incomes. Doctors made comparatively more money then than they do today. And yet I don't remember health care being all that expensive back then. And it was good care, even if the SOTA wasn't what we have today. Some of the surgeries and treatments then I guess would be barbaric by today's standards, with robotics and such. I remember some doctors still making house calls then. Now my doctor enters patient data on a laptop all night, and drives a worse car than I do. Guess who screwed that all up?

People flipped their cars more often then. A full sized new car was around $3,000-3,500. Anything over $3,500 was loaded to the gills with options (cars with AC then were not the norm), or maybe a T-Bird or Riviera. Most of the smaller cars were well under $3,000, brand new off the dealer lots. And a fully-loaded Cadillac Eldorado or Corvette was sticker'ed around $7,000 to $8,000, but often sold for a fair bit less after haggling. A lot of decent solid used cars, and not too old, were three-figure purchases.

And in the northeast and snow belt, you had to slap snow tires on them every winter. And on those cars, you needed them. If the locals allowed it, you could use studded ones. "Goes through mud, ice and snow, or we pay the tow".

But a new color TV console could cost nearly as much as that used car then! At least it took two delivery men to get it into the house, so you felt it was a big purchase.

A brand new construction, four or five bedroom house, with 2.5 baths, on a bigger lot, with a 2 or more car garage was considered luxury suburban, and about $30 to $35,000. But you could buy a very nice home for $10,000 to $15,000 in many parts of the country back then. Plenty enough to raise a family in a nice neighborhood.

Yes, you could get a home then for not much more than a strong year's salary. And it was not uncommon. I knew many people whose home mortgage was under $100/month. The GI bill was also more common then to catch a little break.

...

I just read the other day that between mortgage rates and market prices, the nominal income needed to buy any new home nowadays in many parts of the country requires an income well north of $150,000, based on the traditional debt to income formulae. That's well above the median household income in the US today.

And that excludes a lot of people who I think could have pulled it off in 1970, and are working their butts off just to eat and afford the utilities and rent and a vehicle.

Not only can't they afford home ownership, they would be economically stressed to even have a kid. And that's very bad.

And I'm told a lot of young people don't want to work all that hard. Again, very bad. Entitlement complexes. There are no participation trophies in the marketplace. But they've got all their pronouns in order. That doesn't put food on the table, unfortunately.

The American Dream is evaporating. Again, very bad. And there is no justifiable reason for it. We are not in a World War. Most people are not living crazy beyond their means. Just their government is.

After Vietnam and the Church hearings, I take everything the government tells us with copious amounts of salt. Depending on who's in office, they always quietly adjust the quarterly numbers up or down later, after the media is on to something else, and when no one is paying attention anymore. When even the numbers are politicized, you know.
 

Columbo

Mr. Codgers Neighborhood
Gas in 2000 where I lived, 99 cents a gallon or less for regular unleaded. Today it's 3.79 to 3.89.

Here is the quick point:

According to the Chained CPI measurement, inflation averaged 2.24% per year between 2000 and 2024, resulting in a total inflation of 70.12%. This means that $1 in 2000 has the same buying power as $1.70 in 2024.

It is not 5% less to me.

Some of the gentlemen over at the Codger Cabin thread at The Brown Leaf use those year-to-year index calculators whenever an old ad from the 40s or 50s pops up with a period MSRP in it, to show how crazy some of the prices, purportedly adjusted to current dollars, would be.

Some of those fanciest things were eye-watering expensive, for any era.
 
But we also should not forget that the income also increased during the time. Not sure what one made in the mid 60's, maybe 5-6k or so, but my wife told me a Ford Mustang Convertible was about $2700 then. Probably being north of $35k these days.
Well, here's the problem with that. And I use these numbers to illustrate my point, they are not exact.

Let's say it is 1975 and you buy a house for $60,000. Thirty years later and you've paid it off. And retired on fixed income. Then the county auditor comes along and says, "Good news! Your home is now valued at $140,000! It has increased in worth! Unfortunately, this will mean a higher property tax."

But when you see what $140,000 in 2005 translates down to in 1975 dollars, it is $60,000.

So...has the value of your home increased? No. The value of the dollar has decreased.
 

luvmysuper

My elbows leak
Staff member
Well, here's the problem with that. And I use these numbers to illustrate my point, they are not exact.

Let's say it is 1975 and you buy a house for $60,000. Thirty years later and you've paid it off. And retired on fixed income. Then the county auditor comes along and says, "Good news! Your home is now valued at $140,000! It has increased in worth! Unfortunately, this will mean a higher property tax."

But when you see what $140,000 in 2005 translates down to in 1975 dollars, it is $60,000.

So...has the value of your home increased? No. The value of the dollar has decreased.

I've always been a proponent of property taxes being capped at a fixed rate of property value, and that value is only assessed and changed when the property is sold to a buyer.
 

Columbo

Mr. Codgers Neighborhood
I've always been a proponent of property taxes being capped at a fixed rate of property value, and that value is only assessed and changed when the property is sold to a buyer.

I can't speak to how they do it everywhere in the US. But out our way, there is the assessed property value, and then there is the millage rates. The two together fix your annual property taxes.

Generally speaking, unless there is a county-wide reassessment done (and that is so expensive to do that most communities only think about those every several decades or so), most property assessments remain fixed from original construction value or a later regional reassessment, unless a meaningful improvement is made to the property.

If you add some footprint to the structures, then they will come out and reassess the place based on that improvement event. And then, all bets are off.

But for those who don't make those sorts of improvements, you can have properties carrying the same assessed value for 20 or 30 or more years around here.

Most properties around here are grossly under assessed based on that system. I think ours is probably assessed at about 10-15% of what the place is worth on today's market. And if I sold it tomorrow, the buyer would enjoy that same assessed property value.

But where they jack up the taxes, to keep up with inflation (and enriching the unionized public employees' endless gold mine) is by adjusting the millage rates from year to year.

And that hits everyone proportionally, according to their assessed value. They bite you on the millage. Using that factor, our RE taxes have more than doubled in the last 20 years.

Local real estate taxes are why even when you own your home, you are still paying 'rent' ... to the government. Don't pay it long enough, and they can sell your home right out from under you at an upset sale. And the Sheriff will throw you out on the street just the same as a renter who failed to pay rent.
 
...destroying the American energy industry these past few years has effectively wrecked the US economy.

Exactly, and our president is taking another million (?) barrels from our strategic reserves to try and lower prices and save his job. I've heard that the reserves are at a 40-year low.

We passed a gas station on the way to grocery shopping yesterday and the price was $3.41 per gallon. My wife was driving and said something like "that's the cheapest I've seen, I need to fill up after we shop".

A half hour later she pulled in and the price had changed to $3.75...almost 35 cents more.

Of course that is the-holiday-weekend-is-coming pricing, but still a bit ridiculous.
 

luvmysuper

My elbows leak
Staff member
Exactly, and our president is taking another million (?) barrels from our strategic reserves to try and lower prices and save his job. I've heard that the reserves are at a 40-year low.

We passed a gas station on the way to grocery shopping yesterday and the price was $3.41 per gallon. My wife was driving and said something like "that's the cheapest I've seen, I need to fill up after we shop".

A half hour later she pulled in and the price had changed to $3.75...almost 35 cents more.

Of course that is the-holiday-weekend-is-coming pricing, but still a bit ridiculous.

Actually...
To be fair, that release is from the Northeast Reserve. The Northeast reserve was established in 2014.
That reserve was considered to be unnecessary and was ordered by Bipartisan Legislation to be shut down and emptied this past March.
It is a gasoline reserve rather than our typical crude oil reserves, and gasoline can't be stored long term, thus maintaining that reserve of gasoline costs 19 million a year due to stock rotation.
The million barrel release/sale will nearly empty that dead reserve.
In any case, that release won't be at the gas pumps till the end of June or beginning of July.
 

luvmysuper

My elbows leak
Staff member
Guys...
Just a word, to no one person in particular, and to everyone in general...

We are edging ever closer to the political cliff edge in this thread, which is something we don't want to do.

It would be great if we could talk in general about inflation without blaming any particular person, party or affiliation, because we are all in the state we are in because of years if not decades of actions and lack of actions by a wide variety of politicians in every corner of the country from every walk of life and political party across the wide spectrum.

It's an interesting conversation, but we can't allow "interesting" to get in the way of our friendships and camaraderie here.

We can look at cause and effect if we like, but we don't have to try to draw specific corollaries or place specific blame.
Let each person take on board and think about the issues for themselves.
 

Phoenixkh

I shaved a fortune
My Dad owned 2 gas stations in the late 1950s into the early 1960s. One of the stations was off the interstate. There was a gas war. I remember reading the signs: $.117 a gallon.

My, Oh my, have things changed.
 
I've always been a proponent of property taxes being capped at a fixed rate of property value, and that value is only assessed and changed when the property is sold to a buyer.
I can't take hardly any credit for what I wrote there. It is the bulk of a Reagan speech I probably heard second-hand as a teenager (after he was out if office). I remembered it because it was one of the earliest instances I recall of thinking the system is not biased in favor or regular people.

And I agree. Property taxes should be pegged to the value of the home at the time you entered into the mortgage agreement. I am by no means an economist, but I suspect that would throw a big wrench in centralized banking manipulation.
 

Toothpick

Needs milk and a bidet!
I think it was said best earlier by someone here….it’s the speed at which inflation is happening that is alarming. A grocery store roast goes from $3.00 per lb to $15 per pound within a single year and everyone is screwed. And that’s what happened.

No one would blink an eye at inflation if their wages went from $15/hr last year to $45/hr the next year. But that is not what is happening. That roast increased 500% within a year and wages increased 2%, if you’re lucky.

The rich get richer, the poor get poorer. Never been more true than it is right now.
 
There's one of those annoying "words and phrases", to cross connect with the other thread. Annoying is an understatement.

"Fossil fuel"

A slick marketing term concocted by John Rockefeller in the Nineteenth Century to inflate the prices of his product. There is zero scientific evidence that petroleum is derived from any fossils or past organic life. It is found and drilled for at depths far lower than where any fossils or any evidence of past life exists. Go ask any geologist.
First of all, great post all the way around. A lot of stuff that needs to be said and you said it beautifully.
Now, regarding the "fossil fuel" thing, I was always dubious about even in my youth. We were literally told in science class that petroleum came from rotting dinosaurs and it never made a lick of sense to me. And obviously, the science now has changed over the years although I still hear gasoline somewhat kidding referred to as "dead dinosaurs".
Whatever created it, there's nothing on the horizon that's a realistic or affordable substitute.
 
First of all, great post all the way around. A lot of stuff that needs to be said and you said it beautifully.
Now, regarding the "fossil fuel" thing, I was always dubious about even in my youth. We were literally told in science class that petroleum came from rotting dinosaurs and it never made a lick of sense to me. And obviously, the science now has changed over the years although I still hear gasoline somewhat kidding referred to as "dead dinosaurs".
Whatever created it, there's nothing on the horizon that's a realistic or affordable substitute.

It's funny, but I've heard of motor oil referred to as "dino" (versus synthetic). It seems one of those things that is so deeply rooted that it will always be.
 
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