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What Is Going To Happen To Cuba ?

what is going to happen to cuba if fidel steps down from power in some way ? There is alot of theories about opening the markets and a different style of governments, opening to foreign investors and such...

what's you take on this ?

mark the shoeshine boy
 
majkeli said:
Easily obtained Cuban cigars! :w00t:
I think more than likely cigar prices and demand would be very high, and that quality would suffer greatly. Rumor has it that Cuba has been stockpiling cigars for when trade opens up, but I think this could be just that, rumors.
Cheers, DJ.
 
There's going to be one hell of a party in Miami. This was Miami last night...
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mark the shoeshine boy said:
what is going to happen to cuba if fidel steps down from power in some way ? There is alot of theories about opening the markets and a different style of governments, opening to foreign investors and such...

what's you take on this ?

mark the shoeshine boy

While it isn't much there is some foreign investment in Cuba now - look at the tourism industry and you will see that many of the Cuban tourist destinations (inclusive resorts, etc) are owned and operated by non-cuban firms. I can't help but think that foreign investment in Cuba would pick up quicker (under ANY Cuban leader) were it not for things like trade and visitation embargos (which, fortunately Canada doesn't have so we Canucks can visit Cuba if we please and can purchase Cuban cigars at any local smoke shop).
 
Tito said:
There's going to be one hell of a party in Miami. This was Miami last night...

I was reading a Cuban-American blog yesterday where it said that Rep. Ros-Lehtinen warned Floridians not to get in their boats and sail to Cuba to visit (or liberate) their relatives, etc. This is something I hadn't thought of before.

When it is finally confirmed that Fidel has croaked, do you think there may be an impromptu flotilla from Miami to Cuba? That would be pretty wild... and it would REALLY ruffle Raoul's feathers.
 
inkling said:
I was reading a Cuban-American blog yesterday where it said that Rep. Ros-Lehtinen warned Floridians not to get in their boats and sail to Cuba to visit (or liberate) their relatives, etc. This is something I hadn't thought of before.

When it is finally confirmed that Fidel has croaked, do you think there may be an impromptu flotilla from Miami to Cuba? That would be pretty wild... and it would REALLY ruffle Raoul's feathers.


I believe a flotilla is already being planned. Brothers to the Rescue launch flotillas on a regular basis for memorials and all kinds of things. The flotillas are within view of the island as international waters are only what 5-11 miles?

Personally I think Cuba will be more open to investors from Europe and South America who already have a relationship with the island. There are quite a few US firms who would try to invest but I believe if things become more relaxed and more free capitalist ideas are taken up that they would go to current friends and not recent enemies.

The things I have heard is that Raul is worse as far as human rights goes and he doesn't have the charisma that Feidel did. So you have a rough arround the edges, hard drinker, toward the end of his own life (Raul is like 75?) who doesn't play well with others. We may not have much change for a while from the current regime.
 
My mom has a masters in Latin American History and is currently teaching said subject in a high school, here's her opinion on what will happen:

She thinks Castro has colon cancer and will die in the next 4-12 months. After that, she expects Raul Castro to take power, but, as he is a less charismatic leader that Fidel, to give in to US and domestic pressure to have elections. After that she's not sure.

I really don't know enough about Cuba or its history to form my own opinions on the subject, but I thought I'd let you know what she thinks.
 
Gentlemen,

I can only hope that the demise of Castro will be the excuse the U.S. needs to lift it's overdue embargo against Cuba and so greatly help the people of that country in their everyday life.

With a little luck the U.S. will be able to accept a country near its border that doesn't aspire to want a society like them. I would like to believe that the people of Cuba are able to keep some of their ideas of society as well as gain their personal freedom.

Cuba was a corrupt, poverty stricken basket case of a country before the revolution, l just hope that doesn't return.

I think Cuban history will look kindly upon Castro overrall and in the long term.

Regards
John
 
Assuming that it reaches a point where there is enough of a power vacuum (or move towards capitalism) to allow it, what I predict has always been, and continues to be:

Wealthy Cuban exiles in Florida will return, purchase or otherwise take over, huge areas of the place and create their own little fiefdoms. The Cuban people who actually stayed and suffered all these years will NOT get a damn thing when it's all "theirs" again. There is no way they can compete with the money that even middle class Cuban exiles bring to the table. They will be better off, but they will simply have a new master.

Now realistically, bad as that might sound, it might in fact give them a leg-up over other, formerly Communist countries that try going capitalist. They will have the advantage of having a new government that truely understands capitalism and has already been operating under it - not just a bunch of former Communists trying to keep their heads intact, but too unsavy in the ways of self-determination.

That's always been my opinion, and it continues to be so.

Andre
 
yasuo200365 said:
...I think Cuban history will look kindly upon Castro overrall and in the long term...

As it should (IMHO).

Castro may not have done everything correctly during the past 5 decades - but he certainly did a lot for his country and I for one cannot fault him for that.
 
NMMB said:
Castro may not have done everything correctly during the past 5 decades - but he certainly did a lot for his country and I for one cannot fault him for that.

You CAN'T be serious!!! This was brutal murderous regime that could only stay in power by repression (like all Communist regimes). Praising it for the reason of any minor good is like praising Jack the Ripper because he only killed whores. It never ceases to amaze me how there is no lack of people willing to overlook so much when it comes to Communism. Gee, at least Stalin gave his people a nifty canal!

I'm sure there are millions of folks over the years who lost family & property either in Cuba or in desperate attempts to flee the place that don't have your positive view.

Andre
 
I'm certainly no Cuba scholar, but it seems like there were a lot more people trying to get out of Cuba (on rafts, innertubes, etc.) than trying to get in.

I wonder how many Cubans will think fondly of Castro when he's gone--that will be the ultimate testament to his regime.
 
NMMB said:
As it should (IMHO).

Castro may not have done everything correctly during the past 5 decades - but he certainly did a lot for his country and I for one cannot fault him for that.


Okay wow! That is a very different view point than what I get down here in S. Florida. Castro has been getting off pretty easy over the past 10 years or so. With Papal visits and countries lurking around for oil & gas and other raw materials. Castro was a really really bad guy and accountable for the killing 1000's and suffering of many. He's kept that country in 1959 for quite some time. Image losing everything that you own today. Your land and possesions they are now owned by the Govt. The human rights and freedoms that we take for granted are not allowed by Castro and his regiem. They would have you killed, imprisoned or forced off of the island. I for one hope that I never have to flee anywhere or cross any body of water in a 55 gallon drum. I never want to live in that type of psychological fear.

This is my opinion embargos aside I think that the US has been taking it lightly on Castro & Cuba in prep for this day. We just went after Hussein for WMD's and his murderous ways of the Iraqi people. And Hussein did not have one weapon that could reach the US. But Cuba is 70 miles away and Castro is not a threat but he too is guilty of killing his own people. Cuba is a virgin, starving market that is hungry for infrastructure and goods. There is an enormus opportunity for profits to be made off of Cuba if communism fails.

Many of the local politicians in S. Florida who are either Cuban or have Cuban background are getting the people in Miami all worked up about helping to free Cuba. People here are also getting prepared for the onslaught of lawsuits over land deeds and titles to the folks who's property was nationalized.

This is an interesting pot of stew and one can hope that whatever happens hopefully the people of Cuba will be able to have a better say in what is best for them. Cuba Libre!!!
 
I have to agree with the anti-Castro sentiments expressed here. He is a mass murderer who beats, imprisons or kills his political opponents, journalists and those who seek to think for themselves. He tosses gays in prison, intellectuals into re-education camps and AIDS victims into ersatz leper colonies. And his decades of impoverishing a nation overflowing in resources and resourcefulness has compelled countless poor souls to take to shark-infested oceans in leaky rafts in an often-fatal gamble for freedom.

When Castro does perish, I hope he spends his infernal eternity making Cuba Libre cocktails for Hitler, Mao and Stalin, while Che cleans up their vomit. I must admit, my bewilderment over Western liberal admiration for these cruel madmen increases every year. And on that note, let me say Abajo Fidel! Cuba Libre!
 
Before their revolution Cuba was overrun with criminals, corrupt officials and exploitative (U.S. Oil) businesses. It was ready for a popular revolution...., those who fled in the early years to Miami etc were those in the main who prospered under the old regime.

In 1959 the average life expectancy was 60.

Since then Cuba has built one of the best (& free at delivery) health systems in the world. Life expectancy has increased by 18 years to equal to the U.S. and its infant mortality rate is actually better than the States.

Cuba is still a third world country, but compared to the region it has prospered. It has better literacy rates than the U.S.

One of the factors that makes life so hard in Cuba is the blockade - it has stopped machine parts and chemicals from reaching the country - agriculture has had to learn to adapt and businesses have gone to the wall.

Apart from hardship to the Cuban people the blockade has achieved little or nothing politically. It comes as no surprise to me that a small percentage of Cubans have risked their life to escape economic hardship - a lot of which is a direct consequence of the blockade.

When Castro goes he will leave knowing that Cuba is in much better position than it was in 1959...., and its population is still better off, despite the blockade, than many of those countries in the region that had corrupt 'nasty' regimes propped up by the U.S. in the 60's, 70's & 80's.

History will be kind to Castro ...., when will the U.S. release its prisoners (held without trial) in Cuba?

Regards
John
 
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