Where's the stock market going to go?

[murchmb]

I get the feeling that there has been and still is an awful lot of upward pressure on the market that is artificial. Are the market makers just trying to squeeze out as much profit as they can before the next big correction, or are we in the clear and seeing a relatively flat market for the time being? The financial and banking sector bailouts seem to be working, but I don't see the whole stimulus package doing much more than providing temporary warm fuzzies for skittish investors. So, where do you see the DOW, S&P, etc. going over the next year or two?

 

[Austin]

Your guess is as good as mine. I think it will be telling if and when healthcare reform is passed. In all likelihood insurance companies will lose value and send the market spiraling.

 

[82R100]

There's much lipservice given to the looming jobless recovery. I don't doubt the jobless part, but I wonder what will/would fuel the recovery.

- Chris

 

[Johnny Dale]

I got a feeling there is going to be a short term dip starting before year end. Seems to be a lot of housing problems still occurring which are not helping either.

 

[Obsessed]

It's definitely going to go up unless it goes down or stays flat.

 

[gerwen]

It's definitely going to go up unless it goes down or stays flat.

Wise words.

 

[ouch]

It's definitely going to go up unless it goes down or stays flat.

+1

If you want to look like a genius, just film yourself twice, first saying it will go up and then saying it will go down. Then all you have to do is break out the correct tape, et voila.

 

[professorchaos]

Long term it will go up. Whether or not it is generally over valued right now, I have no idea!

 

[Brodirt]

If anyone has the answer shoot me a PM would ya?

All kidding aside consensus opinion that I hear/read is that there is still a lot of captial on the sidelines and that as the consumer returns so will that capital, provided that inflation doesn't start to heat up. With the record gold prices over the past week or two though, it seems there are many betting on inflation.

 

[airplanedoc]

If I knew the answer to that someone else woudl be shaving my face everyday.

Nearterm I think it will be a bit unstable, probably trending upward but more or less flat.

Longterm I think it will be up.

I do think that once the market starts really moving up, It will go pretty rapidly, if you are investing in the right things.

Things I would steer clear of would be
medicine/hospitals/pharmacudicals -- increased government involvment will hurt the market and suck away any profits
autos -- the drownding auto industry may have found a lifeboat, but there is no real rescue in sight yet.
insurance -- See medicine, and with climate/weather severity issues, probably not a good place to be.
airlines -- I shouldn't have to tell anyone this one

Things I would look at would be
infrastructure and construction -- we have to rebuild/update our antiquated systems, and technology
eco-technologies -- where they merge with infrastructure I think things could be huge
solar and wind -- Think Google in the early 90's

 

[Stubblefield]

It's definitely going to go up unless it goes down or stays flat.

Personally, I think it will change from where it is right now. Or not.

I still think the smartest bet is to become intimately familiar with an industry or segment and invest accordingly, irrespective of where the market is headed.

 

[Jim]

Commercial real estate is leveraged tremendously, many times more than the residential market,combined with the failing of huge numbers of small businesses. Flat sales are causing rent arrears in huge numbers.

Some estimates today are 25% unemployment if you consider self employed, contract workers, small business owners and people whom are grossly underemployed. It is not over yet.

 

[Bright (Satin) Futur]

It's almost too late to get to the life boats so just stop what you're doing and buy gold. When the Communist Chinese press the WTO for a new reserve bank note our entire monetary system will be entirely worthless - Act now!

 

[ratcheer]

Where's the stock market going to go?

Nobody knows. It is gambling, pure and simple. If anyone really knew the answer to that question, they could become fabulously wealthy in a short time.

Tim

 

[SiBurning]

There's tremendous pressure for this to go higher short term, partly driven by a lot of cash coming from the fed recently, and partly from short sellers who keep thinking this is gonna sink. Don't short now, but don't expect a pop to stick around. Wait for the blowoff top to fade. It's a short term play right now.

 

[toucanlamp]

The best quote I've heard is that - if someone has some stock tip for you, they can only be one of two things - full of it and just giving you their guess, or they're telling you something that shouldn't be revealing.

The only way to be sure of good long-term returns on investments is to follow the basic principles that apply. I think probably one of the best strategies is just to pick a diversified portfolio of well established companies with solid earnings and a decent dividend, and hang onto it.

I remember seeing some analysis of all these stock advice shows, like Jim Cramer, and for every single solitary one, their advice was either worse or no better than the index.

That's one huge problem out there, people spend billions of dollars a year for advice that doesn't exist. It's like going to the casino and paying someone to give you their opinion on what number is going to come up when you roll the dice.

 

[82R100]

I fully agree. Many years ago I read a book by Peter Lynch called One Up On Wall Street. Peter Lynch had led Fidelity's Magellan Fund, at the time the most successful mutual fund in history. The book left a deep impression on me at the time, in its emphasis on the futility of anyone trying to (or believing in their ability to) predict the future. It also kind of spoiled Wall Street Week for me, as it seemed as if most of their guests were "technicians" whose main talent lay in reading the shapes of the curves of the indices.

- Chris

 

[Tom C]

It's definitely going to go up unless it goes down or stays flat.

Perfect.