Here Comes Irma!

[Slash McCoy]

Looks like our next hurricane is going to be truly epic. East Coast guys, please get supplied and be ready to bug out if this thing comes your way! I think it will make Harvey look like small potatoes, bad as it was.

 

[auk1124]

My wife and I are going to Virginia Beach next week. I hope it doesn't head that way.

 

[Slash McCoy]

My wife and I are going to Virginia Beach next week. I hope it doesn't head that way.

I was just looking at one model that has it landing somewhere near Chesapeake Bay. Of course it is still kinda early for such predictions to be reliable. Keep your gas tank full and plenty of water and food packed. If it hits around there, it will be a madhouse with Norfolk, Baltimore, DC, and all the burbs evacuating. This storm could easily be cat 4 when it hits, after warming up over the gulf stream. I'm thinking it will follow the coast up as far as R.I. before curling back out over the North Atlantic. I would be prepared fur just such a scenario. Or it could go inland, maybe pass west of Philly which will put Philly in the dangerous semicircle, and trash a wide swath of PA and NJ and NY, and slowly rain itself out against the Appalachian Mountains. If this happens, expect a lot of flooding in the affected areas. I hope I'm wrong but its gotta go somewhere.

 

[auk1124]

Thanks! We will definitely keep an eye on the forecast.

 

[Slash McCoy]

Well, seems like each day has the track extending more to the west before bending upward. Hope we don't get it here in New Orleans. I think we still have some pumps out of action. A cat 2 or so I would just stay on the boat, but I won't stay for a forecast cat 4. At this point it looks like it will hit FL and curve to the north, but those darn models like I said, keep shifting to the west.

 

[Traveling Man]

As someone who owns coastal property and was a textbook refuge in Hurricane Matthew last year, let me just say Irma can go somewhere else!

Looking at the models, I'm afraid it is going to hug the coast of Cuba, catch the Gulf Stream, and hang a hard right.

 

[FL shaver]

Need this thing to start turning hard right Wednesday. Missing a triathlon in Captiva Sunday is the least of my worries.

 

[njpaddy]

Models seem to be flip-flopping between a west coast or east coast Florida landfall. Neither look good. I'm hoping it stays off the east coast and curves out to sea, however that seems a less likely scenario at this point.

 

[Traveling Man]

I've been through four major hurricanes - the biggest being Hugo. I really don't like hurricanes.

 

[FL shaver]

The last model run has shifted the Florida run farther east, right up the east coast. Let's keep shifting it right...
Hurricane Model Plots | South Florida Water Management District

 

[Slash McCoy]

The last model run has shifted the Florida run farther east, right up the east coast. Let's keep shifting it right...
Hurricane Model Plots | South Florida Water Management District

yay!

 

[FL shaver]

Looking even a bit better with the 9:36 pm runs. The family is going to ATL tomorrow if we don't get out of the cone. The numbers on Irma today are insane.

 

[oc_in_fw]

Looks like our next hurricane is going to be truly epic. East Coast guys, please get supplied and be ready to bug out if this thing comes your way! I think it will make Harvey look like small potatoes, bad as it was.

Most of Harvey's problem is it came ashore and just stayed there for 4 days. It was an unusual storm.

 

[FL shaver]

Agreed. Happy this one is a much quicker mover.

Latest NHC discussion recognizes the GFS has the storm running east of Florida, but calls it an outlier and sticks with the European model for its cone. The European would be disastrous for SW FL.

 

[njpaddy]

Any other good interactive weather maps besides Ventusky.com and windy.com? I usually use Ventusky, but it only shows GFS and GEM (Canadian) models. Windy shows GFS and Euro. Until this morning, Euro had Irma going up the west coast of Fla and GFS the east. Today the Euro seems to be closer to the GFS model, pulling it right and making landfall near the South Carolina & Georgia border.

This youtube guy from North Carolina is pretty good updating the track from various sources.
J7409

 

[blary54]

Stay safe out there guys.

 

[Nikonsal]

Even if the eye wall runs up the coast it will still be nightmare as this one is quite large. I live inland in Palm Beach County and will be staying as they are running out of gas throughout the state along I-95 and the Turnpike.

 

[Traveling Man]

Even if the eye wall runs up the coast it will still be nightmare as this one is quite large. I live inland in Palm Beach County and will be staying as they are running out of gas throughout the state along I-95 and the Turnpike.

Where are you? I spent quite a bit of time in Wellington a long, long time ago. If you are all the way in near Belle Glade, you will hopefully avoid the storm surge, but be mindful of the wind.

 

[Rhody]

Good luck. Its serious and not fake news take care and stay safe. I have family there. A cousin listens to talk radio and has been convinced it's fake news and just a media panic.

 

[FL shaver]

Any other good interactive weather maps besides Ventusky.com and windy.com? I usually use Ventusky, but it only shows GFS and GEM (Canadian) models. Windy shows GFS and Euro. Until this morning, Euro had Irma going up the west coast of Fla and GFS the east. Today the Euro seems to be closer to the GFS model, pulling it right and making landfall near the South Carolina & Georgia border.

This youtube guy from North Carolina is pretty good updating the track from various sources.
J7409

I was unfamiliar with those sites. I was getting the individual tracks from: Tropical Tidbits

I'll be checking those out.

In the meantime, I'm getting canopies thinned out before the storm arrives so trees stay standing.

My daughter and son-in-law tried to evacuate from Bonita Springs and got as far as Port Charlotte before coming to a dead stop on I-75. They turned around and came back. We all canceled hotel reservations in ATL this weekend. You just can't get there. Gas is not available here in Cape Coral...

My son is the biggest concern. He is in Boca Raton. He is heading west tomorrow after work.