If the tobacco price doubled...

[DC_MPA]

Dang those cheap pens

 

[Hirsute]

I used to order Cubans from a place in Hong Kong. The boxes would arrive wrapped in brown paper and the customs form said "travel books."


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Claudel Xerxes]

I don't think that I would have much of a problem if the prices doubled. I'm pretty sure that I'm set for the rest of my life anyway. I took the "buy early, buy often" method to heart.

 

[Domminigan]

"Buy early, buy often."


I'm sufficiently provisioned at this point that I could stop buying completely and never run out. If such a tobaccolypse did actually occur, though, I would probably just dial it way back and pick & choose where I could find bargains.

Pick and choose would probably be my idea as well.
I'm somewhere north of 200lbs of pipe tobacco and a good selection of cigars as well.
I expect my stash to outlast me, as I just don't smoke nearly enough to use it all up in 70 years, but it's there if I decide to ramp up.
Were I in your situation, I would just save up and still buy in quantity. Pensioners mix is a good way to build something that aging would do wonders for.
The reason I say buy in bulk is because it's easier to forget about some if you buy overwhelming amount.

 

[Claudel Xerxes]

Pick and choose would probably be my idea as well.
I'm somewhere north of 200lbs of pipe tobacco and a good selection of cigars as well.
I expect my stash to outlast me, as I just don't smoke nearly enough to use it all up in 70 years, but it's there if I decide to ramp up.
Were I in your situation, I would just save up and still buy in quantity. Pensioners mix is a good way to build something that aging would do wonders for.

I'm pretty sure that's a safe assumption.

 

[Domminigan]

I'm pretty sure that's a safe assumption.

You never know, Tobacco is a risky investment; it could all go up in smoke.

 

[Thu'umhammer]

I've never been cost that's bothered me with tobacco, it's always been health. That's the main reason I smoke in moderation.

 

[WarriorMonk]

So for us new guys, is this something to be worried about? Should we start stocking up?

 

[DC_MPA]

So for us new guys, is this something to be worried about? Should we start stocking up?

I'd start stocking up on anything you really like because the FDA ruling will cause a lot of availability issues in the US. As we've been chatting a lot about lately, mason jars are cheap and pack a ton of pipe tobacco, and look good on a shelf. If there's a few blends you really like and are available in bulk or great sales, $50 buys 1.5-2 lbs of a bunch of bulk varieties.

I wouldn't go on a frenzy but I'd definitely support any of us to steadily grab up a handful of years of tobacco we love for just in case. Too many horror stories of the "I remember when Balkan Sobranie was at every drug store right next to old Bengal Slices, $1.49 a tin and couple times a year, on sale for $.99"

If an extra tin was bought every other week for 2 years, one would have 5.5 lbs of the relic treasure at a buy in price of no more than $77.

I already see sizable inflation from when I started buying 12 years ago.

 

[Price]

I'd start stocking up on anything you really like because the FDA ruling will cause a lot of availability issues in the US. As we've been chatting a lot about lately, mason jars are cheap and pack a ton of pipe tobacco, and look good on a shelf. If there's a few blends you really like and are available in bulk or great sales, $50 buys 1.5-2 lbs of a bunch of bulk varieties.

I wouldn't go on a frenzy but I'd definitely support any of us to steadily grab up a handful of years of tobacco we love for just in case. Too many horror stories of the "I remember when Balkan Sobranie was at every drug store right next to old Bengal Slices, $1.49 a tin and couple times a year, on sale for $.99"

If an extra tin was bought every other week for 2 years, one would have 5.5 lbs of the relic treasure at a buy in price of no more than $77.

I already see sizable inflation from when I started buying 12 years ago.

This is a solid plan. Don't go too crazy all at once (lest you end up with five pounds of something you can't remember why you liked in a couple years), but it's smart to buy in "smoke one, stash two" quantities, maybe more with blends that age particularly well.

 

[DC_MPA]

Price nailed it, I have probably 50% of my cellar is less than 4 ounce blends. They'll get smoked, some I really like, some I kinda like, none I hate. That 50% I won't buy again or if I do, a few ounces will do me for a few years.

Once all of those are gone, I'll be into my stocked up blends and I'll keep buying those as my enjoyment allows or when I get the bug and just want to see 2-3 pounds of something I already have 5-7 pounds of show up at my door lol.

 

[Riff Raff]

I once received a package from a fellow Brown Leafer on the continent which contained some delicious Swiss & German chocolate, and was marked as such. His pen must've run out of ink before he could note the dozen or so packages of Salty Dogs that were also in there.

It's those damn Kaweco Sport pens! For some reason they just stop writing!

 

[Garlisk]

I only started cellaring about mid last year. My goal was to hit 50lbs by the time FDA stuff starts going into effect, which is august I think? I'm lucky in the sense that I haven't really met a VA flake I didn't like to some degree, so its been easy for me to buy bulk VA's (Stokkebye Luxury series, Gawith FVF and BBF) by the pound. I want to fill out the rest of the 50 lbs with McClelland bulks 2010, 2015, 2035, 2020, 5100, 5115...maybe another one or two, can't remember.
I have many tins of things I've never tried and just assume I will enjoy based on my other tastes. Blackwoods flake, Matured VA No 22/24/27.

Things that worry me: I have yet to try many of my Dunhill tins, Rattray's, SPC, and many others. So if I find some magical blend down the road I'll either have to treasure what I have or likely pay through the nose for more. I guess I'm just willing to take that chance knowing I at least have all my sweet, sweet VA flakes...

 

[Domminigan]

So for us new guys, is this something to be worried about? Should we start stocking up?

Yes, but it's not just for new guys. As with most all semi-durable commodities, the price will go up over time. You could buy a smoke able cigar way back when for 5 cents. Granted, that five cents bought a lot more back then, but the cost of the cigar rose too. (1883 $0.05 = $1.12ish now)
The main difference is that currently, with all taxes and regulations set to increase soon; that $1.00 you spend now will buy you less in a year due far more to that rather than inflation.
Unlike many other semi durable commodities, however; this one is a direct use commodity. You don't (usually) intend to sell this to someone else later for a profit, or hope that it holds it's value for financial sake. This is an investment in future enjoyment. With the remote possibility that all tobacco is very highly regulated in the future or even the sale of it banned, there is a possibility that you won't be able to buy it at all, or your selection will be drastically limited by local purchase only. Let's hope not, but it's not like they allow smoking everywhere like they used to anymore.
And if by some miracle we don't get increased governmental meddling... You've still got your tobacco.
So I posit that an investment of tobacco now is a good investment for anyone who enjoys it.
All of this implies you can afford it, of course. Like any investment, it is not a good idea to overextend yourself into it.

I'd start stocking up on anything you really like because the FDA ruling will cause a lot of availability issues in the US. As we've been chatting a lot about lately, mason jars are cheap and pack a ton of pipe tobacco, and look good on a shelf. If there's a few blends you really like and are available in bulk or great sales, $50 buys 1.5-2 lbs of a bunch of bulk varieties.

I wouldn't go on a frenzy but I'd definitely support any of us to steadily grab up a handful of years of tobacco we love for just in case. Too many horror stories of the "I remember when Balkan Sobranie was at every drug store right next to old Bengal Slices, $1.49 a tin and couple times a year, on sale for $.99"

If an extra tin was bought every other week for 2 years, one would have 5.5 lbs of the relic treasure at a buy in price of no more than $77.

I already see sizable inflation from when I started buying 12 years ago.

I see a great amount of inflation from when I started buying too.
Just as an example; I remember paying for a 40 pack of random off brand cigars that cost me $29.99 (I thought $0.75 each was a lot) on sale six years ago. The same pack from the same retailer is currently $49.95.
I mainly started buying because I saw the massive relative taxes from Australia and Great Britain and figured they were coming here.

Price nailed it, I have probably 50% of my cellar is less than 4 ounce blends. They'll get smoked, some I really like, some I kinda like, none I hate. That 50% I won't buy again or if I do, a few ounces will do me for a few years.

Once all of those are gone, I'll be into my stocked up blends and I'll keep buying those as my enjoyment allows or when I get the bug and just want to see 2-3 pounds of something I already have 5-7 pounds of show up at my door lol.

Totally agree with both of them,
I picked up 20lbs of MacBaren in 5lb bulk bags when it went on sale a few years ago, without ever having tried it before. I don't regret that purchase because I love the two blends that I got and neither are available anymore, but if I had despised it, I'd be stuck with a ton of stuff that I didn't like.

I only started cellaring about mid last year. My goal was to hit 50lbs by the time FDA stuff starts going into effect, which is august I think? I'm lucky in the sense that I haven't really met a VA flake I didn't like to some degree, so its been easy for me to buy bulk VA's (Stokkebye Luxury series, Gawith FVF and BBF) by the pound. I want to fill out the rest of the 50 lbs with McClelland bulks 2010, 2015, 2035, 2020, 5100, 5115...maybe another one or two, can't remember.
I have many tins of things I've never tried and just assume I will enjoy based on my other tastes. Blackwoods flake, Matured VA No 22/24/27.

Things that worry me: I have yet to try many of my Dunhill tins, Rattray's, SPC, and many others. So if I find some magical blend down the road I'll either have to treasure what I have or likely pay through the nose for more. I guess I'm just willing to take that chance knowing I at least have all my sweet, sweet VA flakes...

Worse yet; what happens if the value of your tins skyrockets like some others have?
I bought a pair of sealed tins for $7. Balkan Sobranie 759 2oz and Balkan Sobranie Smoking Mixture. I intended to smoke them with some friends like I have other old tins I've ran across.
Then I searched them on eBay.
They went from something I could share to something I was torn over. It took me a year, but I eventually sold them on eBay and bought razors, pipes and tobacco for what I got for them.
Still; I regret not trying them. I keep hoping I'll run across another pair of them with the seal broken.


The thing I do wonder about is how everyone has their long term cellar stored.
I've got my good and decent cigars in a large cabinet, along with all of my active rotation pipe tobacco.
Pouches and some tins are in the drawer at the bottom of the cabinet, and aren't as humidity regulated.
I've got most of my long term tins stored in a cabinet with beeswax coating the seals and non-label metal parts.
My bulk is jarred on a shelf and in boxes.
The junk cigars (I bought so many Don Jesus, ugh) are stored in an insulated box with mahogany boards between rows of them and a boards of hardwood smoked fresh cut cedar around the outside of the box... They were not smokeable when I got them... Nothing can make them worse. Ammonia...
I have R/O water fed humidity controllers in the cigar cabinet keeping it at 70-72%, the room I keep it all in at 40-50% and temperature controlled at 71F. The cigar box of which we do not speak is 80F and 85-90%.

What other things and controls do you guys have/use?

 

[Garlisk]

I've wondered what I'll do when prices go up on some of my blends. Particularly the Christmas Cheer, which I have multiple tins of. If that stuff truly is no longer made, they will surely jump in price. I will decide then, I suppose, if its worth selling the CC and just smoking, say, aged 2010 or if I actually want to keep the CC.

I'm trying to keep my thoughts on the subject light, and remembering that I'm lucky to have started when I did regardless of what happens in the future.

 

[cursethis]

It's those damn Kaweco Sport pens! For some reason they just stop writing!

If you get one of the mini cartridge converters for the Kaweco Sport, they run out ink with like two strokes.

 

[Domminigan]

I've wondered what I'll do when prices go up on some of my blends. Particularly the Christmas Cheer, which I have multiple tins of. If that stuff truly is no longer made, they will surely jump in price. I will decide then, I suppose, if its worth selling the CC and just smoking, say, aged 2010 or if I actually want to keep the CC.

I'm trying to keep my thoughts on the subject light, and remembering that I'm lucky to have started when I did regardless of what happens in the future.

I still cannot believe I bought all that Christmas cheer for all those years and then missed out on 2016-2017... And then to see the prices it's going at now!
Fortunately, it's not yet so near and dear that the price has spiked too much.

I really hope we will still be able to trade stock through the years. If I end up with a ton of stuff I don't like but is valuable I'd rather trade it to others who are in similar situations.
It would feel far better than struggling over outright selling it.
Then again, selling "collector value" may even be made illegal, and then the value may drop.

 

[DC_MPA]

So for us new guys, is this something to be worried about? Should we start stocking up?

New entry to the hobby faces a key obstacle, now it's a market flooded with everyone hoarding it up. For instance, Full Virginia Flake has always been popular. Even popular, I could go to 3-4 sites and find it in stock under $30 for 250g boxes. It lasted on their site for several weeks before it would go out of stock. By that time, the ones out of stock usually got it back in. If everyone was oddly out, wait 2-3 weeks and it would be back in under $30.

Now it's been out of stock 3 months now everywhere, smoking pipes got it in two weeks ago, lasted 2 days I believe. Probably another 3-4 months before it's back again. Everyone hoarding it up. Same goes for a lot of tobaccos even ones considered readily available until this FDA ruling.

 

[WarriorMonk]

New entry to the hobby faces a key obstacle, now it's a market flooded with everyone hoarding it up. For instance, Full Virginia Flake has always been popular. Even popular, I could go to 3-4 sites and find it in stock under $30 for 250g boxes. It lasted on their site for several weeks before it would go out of stock. By that time, the ones out of stock usually got it back in. If everyone was oddly out, wait 2-3 weeks and it would be back in under $30.

Now it's been out of stock 3 months now everywhere, smoking pipes got it in two weeks ago, lasted 2 days I believe. Probably another 3-4 months before it's back again. Everyone hoarding it up. Same goes for a lot of tobaccos even ones considered readily available until this FDA ruling.

This is what scares me. To start with pipes and get left with the less desirable tobacco.

 

[WarriorMonk]

Yes, but it's not just for new guys. As with most all semi-durable commodities, the price will go up over time. You could buy a smoke able cigar way back when for 5 cents. Granted, that five cents bought a lot more back then, but the cost of the cigar rose too. (1883 $0.05 = $1.12ish now)
The main difference is that currently, with all taxes and regulations set to increase soon; that $1.00 you spend now will buy you less in a year due far more to that rather than inflation.
Unlike many other semi durable commodities, however; this one is a direct use commodity. You don't (usually) intend to sell this to someone else later for a profit, or hope that it holds it's value for financial sake. This is an investment in future enjoyment. With the remote possibility that all tobacco is very highly regulated in the future or even the sale of it banned, there is a possibility that you won't be able to buy it at all, or your selection will be drastically limited by local purchase only. Let's hope not, but it's not like they allow smoking everywhere like they used to anymore.
And if by some miracle we don't get increased governmental meddling... You've still got your tobacco.
So I posit that an investment of tobacco now is a good investment for anyone who enjoys it.
All of this implies you can afford it, of course. Like any investment, it is not a good idea to overextend yourself into it.

I completely agree Sir!